000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070326 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI OCT 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM JOVA NEAR 13.0 108.3W MOVING W NW OR 300 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NE-E EXPECTED BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS APPROACHING MEXICO BETWEEN 96-120 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL POSSIBLE LANDFALL WITH JOVA FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-240 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 13.4N 119.0W MOVING W NW OR 295 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NE-E EXPECTED AROUND 48 HOURS MOVING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF W CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH 120 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 120 HOURS WITH IRWIN FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH EARLY FRI. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND 180-240 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N85W TO LOW PRES 10N93W 1008 MB TO 14N103W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N124W TO 07N134W TO 08N140W. NO INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS NOTED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S AND 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 126W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS REACHING FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 28N114W CONTINUING THROUGH 26N122W TO 24N130W. NW-N 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS REACHING TO 26N BY 48 HOURS. SEAS OF 8-14 FT ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 117W IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. THE AREA OF 8 FT OR GREATER SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE S COVERING THE AREA N OF 19N BY 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE 20 KT NW-N WINDS WILL OCCUR W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA REACHING TO 19N BY 48 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGTHENS WITH 1024 MB HIGH PRES JUST NW OF THE AREA BUILDING IN. THIS TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A STRIP OF NE-E 20 KT WINDS FROM 19N TO 24N W OF 120W IN 48 HOURS. A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT GAP WINDS ARE PERSISTING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALTHOUGH THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY 18-24 HOURS... THEN MAY PULSE TO 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF MEXICO. A NEW AREA OF LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N92.5W 1008 MB MOVING W-NW AROUND 6 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS AS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL EXTENDS AROUND THE LOW S OF 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 103W. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF THE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH IN 24 HOURS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...THEN EXPANDING TO ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W IN 48 HOURS WITH COMBINED SW SWELL AND WIND WAVES BUILDING TO 10 FT AT THAT TIME. THIS LOW CURRENTLY HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 17-19 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE N AND NE HAVING NOW REACHED THE COASTLINES OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER NW SWELL TO THE N ALONG WITH FRESHLY GENERATED SEAS AROUND IRWIN AND JOVA RESULTING IN A CONFUSED SEA STATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 24-48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY