000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062300 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU OCT 06 2011 CORRECTED SPECIAL FEATURES TYPO TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E STRENGTHENS INTO THE TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2011 SEASON...AND HAS BEEN NAMED JOVA AT 06/2100 UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 107.5W MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 9 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF JOVA. TROPICAL STORM IRWIN HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AT 06/2100 UTC IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 117.9W MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 7 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 997 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-240 NM OF CENTER. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N86W TO 13N102W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. IRWIN NEAR 12N120W 09N130W TO 10N140W. THE ITCZ IS W OF AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W...AND N OF 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W...AND WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 122W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH HIGHLIGHT THE MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. T.S. JOVA AND T.S. IRWIN ARE SEPARATED AROUND 600 NM FROM EACH OTHER AND SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PROBABLE. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR IRWIN TO TRAIL THE NEIGHBORING CYCLONE AS THE LATTER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE TWO CYCLONES WILL MOVE MORE IN TANDEM TOWARD THE COAST...AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL ALLOW BOTH TROPICAL CYCLONES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. JOVA IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY WHILE IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. . A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ TO NEAR 25N122W HAS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. THE 1918 UTC EXPERIMENTAL ASCAT 25 KM COASTAL WINDS SHOWED SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT EXPECTED WINDS OF 20 KT SHIFTING TO THE NW AND N WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. NW SWELL TO 11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TO COVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF 19N BY SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT NW WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND ENHANCE NE TRADE WINDS N OF 10N. GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT...BUT COULD PERK UP ONE LAST TIME BY EARLY FRI. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND EVENTUALLY MIX WITH NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE TWO TROPICAL STORMS. EXPECT SEAS TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UP TO 12-15 FT NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONES BY SUN. $$ GR