000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061012
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 6 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E NEAR 10.3N 105.8W 1006 MB AT 0900 UTC 
OCT 06 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 
KT GUSTS 40 KT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WNW FOR THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER 
TODAY...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/ 
WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E NEAR 11.9N 116.8W 1007 MB AT 0900 
UTC OCT 06 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A 
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER 
TODAY OR FRIDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 60 
NM S OF CENTER.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N93W TO TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION TEN E TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN E TO 09N128W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 88W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

TWO TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON 
TROUGH HIGHLIGHT THE MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHEAST 
PACIFIC. TD 10-E AND TD 11-E ARE SEPARATED LESS THAN 500 NM FROM 
EACH OTHER...AND GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM GFS...ECMWF AND THE 
UKMET ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL TREND OVER 
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. BOTH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT 
WNW THEN TURN NE. IT IS MODERATELY LIKELY THE TWO WILL MOVE IN 
TANDEM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...IF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE 
CORRECT. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL ALLOW 
BOTH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING.

A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TIJUANA MEXICO TO 26N133W IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY FRI MORNING. 
NW SWELL TO 11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PART 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER THIS MORNING...THEN PUSH SOUTH AND 
EAST TO COVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF 19N BY SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH 
PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT NW WINDS TO 20 KT 
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... 
AND ENHANCE NE TRADE WINDS N OF 20N.

GAP WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 20 KT 
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD PERK UP ONE LAST TIME BY EARLY FRI. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE 
REGION AND EVENTUALLY MIX WITH NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO 
STRONG SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH DUE TO THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF 10-E AND 11-E. EXPECT SEAS TO STEADILY BUILD 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UP TO 12-15 FT NEAR THE LOWS BY SUN.

$$
MUNDELL