000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060340 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU OCT 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N105.1W HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E AT 05/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT 06/1200 UTC AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 10.2N106.2W. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES IS NEAR 11.5N116W 1008 MB ABOUT 575 MILES S-SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW ALSO HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 11N93W TO LOW PRES 10N105W 1006 MB TO LOW PRES 11.5N116W 1008 MB TO 08N130W TO 10N135W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 95W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 90-120 NM W OF COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 07N TO 13N. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N123W TO 28N130W TO 28N135W WITH 8 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL COVERING THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE A REINFORCING SET OF NW SWELL PROPAGATES INTO THE N PORTION WHILE CONVERGING WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL...BUILDING SEAS INTO THE 8-11 FT RANGE WHILE EXPANDING TO THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 120W. EXPECT NW-N 20 KT WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO...THEN TO N OF 26N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE SEAS WILL THEN COVER THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 110W IN 48 HOURS WHILE A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT PRODUCES AN AREA OF 20 KT NE-E WINDS FROM 18N TO 24N W OF 120W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE 20 KT SW-W WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA COMMENCING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW-N IN 48 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N TO NE WINDS REMAINS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL... ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY S. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE TRADES FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 135W ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HOURS WHILE AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SW SWELL OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 130W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT W OF 130W FROM 24-48 HOURS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTERING THE NW SWELL DESCRIBED ABOVE FROM 24-48 HOURS. MEANWHILE SW MONSOONAL FLOW OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE ABOVE DESCRIBED AREAS OF LOW PRES THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS FURTHER BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 FT NEAR THE LOWS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N104W 1008 MB IN 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY