000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BECOMING MORE 
ACTIVE...WITH DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
TROUGH EVIDENT NEAR 10N103W AND 12N114W. THE FIRST ONE IS 
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A BETTER 
CHANGE TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5-10 KT.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH IS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA 
ENTERING THE PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 10N86W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES 
ALONG 13N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N103W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N1114W 
TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 10N122W TO 09N130W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 
09N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS N OF 07N E OF 95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
180 NM SW QUADRANT OF FIRST LOW PRES...FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 
110W AND 121W...AND WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT OF THIRD LOW PRES. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ 
AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 31N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W 
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT. NLY WINDS  
BELOW 20 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT 
WILL BRING NW SWELL TO 9 FT INTO THE NW AND N PORTIONS OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THU AND FRI. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH W-SW WINDS... 
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT 
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO 
RELAXES. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AGAIN THU MORNING DUE TO LOCAL 
DIURNAL EFFECTS BUT REMAIN BELOW 20 KT AFTER THU AFTERNOON. SEAS 
GENERATED BY THE ENHANCED N-NE WINDS IN THE REGION HAVE SPREAD 
WSW AND MERGED WITH LARGER LONG PERIOD SW SWELL FROM THE 
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE 
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 120W AS THE ENTIRE 
TROUGH BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND WINDS STEADILY INCREASE IN THE 
AREA. 

SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST W OF 
135W BETWEEN 09N AND 18N...WITH SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.

$$
GR