000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 5 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BECOMING 
MORE ACTIVE...NOW WITH DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE TROUGH EVIDENT NEAR 11N121W AND 11N114W...AND ANOTHER 
TRYING TO DEVELOP FURTHER E NEAR 09N103W. A SCATTEROMETER PASS 
AT 0440 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT S WINDS FEEDING INTO THE LOW AT 
THE EASTERN END OF THE ACTIVE TROUGH NEAR 09N103W. THE GFS MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THE LOW NEAR 11N121W STARTING
AROUND 07/00Z...WITH THE OTHER LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MAIN 
LOW ALSO DEVELOPING A LITTLE LATER...AROUND 08/12Z. THE OTHER 
GLOBAL MODELS ALSO DEVELOP MULTIPLE LOWS FROM THE ACTIVE MONSOON 
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 13N94W 11N99W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
11N114W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W TO 09N128W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 
09N126W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM N OF TROUGH E OF 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA PUSHING S OF 30N TONIGHT WITH WINDS 
BELOW 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING NW SWELL TO 9 FT INTO 
THE NW AND N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THU AND FRI. HIGH 
PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SMALL AREA OF FRESH 
W-SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 
KT THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RELAXES. EXPECT WINDS TO 
PEAK AGAIN THU MORNING DUE TO LOCAL DIURNAL EFFECTS BUT REMAIN 
BELOW 20 KT AFTER THU AFTERNOON. SEAS GENERATED BY THE ENHANCED 
N-NE WINDS IN THE REGION HAVE SPREAD WSW AND MERGED WITH LARGER 
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. EXPECT SEAS 
TO REMAIN IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
100W AND 120W AS THE ENTIRE TROUGH BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND WINDS 
STEADILY INCREASE IN THE AREA. 

SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST W OF 
135W BETWEEN 10N AND 20N...WITH SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.

$$
MUNDELL