000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 4 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 13N111W TO 10N126W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 
10N126W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT. 
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E THEN DISSIPATE WED. 

ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0322 UTC SHOWED N TO NE WINDS TO 30 
KT CONTINUING TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG TO 
NEAR-GALE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
WED AND THU. SEAS TO 11 FT WILL SPREAD WSW TO AROUND 11N100W BY 
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 11N 
105W TONIGHT AND WED...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE
CONTINUED INTERACTION BETWEEN NE WINDS N OF THE TROUGH AND SW 
WINDS S OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HELP THE NEW LOW INTENSIFY 
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SLY SWELLS ARE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PART 
OF THE AREA BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS... 
THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND MERGE 
WITH SHORT PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 
11N105W MENTIONED ABOVE.

$$
MUNDELL