000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 4 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 10.5N93W TO 09N100W TO 13N111W TO 
10N123W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 10N123W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG N OF TROUGH AXIS E OF 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
TO STRONG WITHIN 250 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 106W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
109W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
128W AND 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW PART OF 
THE AREA. WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT...BUT NW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 
9 FT HAVE MOVED IN AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL 
SHIFT E BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MIDWEEK. 

N TO NE WINDS TO 30 KT CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...CURRENTLY WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 
16N95W TO 14N96W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE...THEN DECREASE SOME IN 48 
HOURS. THIS FLOW IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...AND HAS RESULTED IN A PERTURBED MONSOON TROUGH. 
THIS CONTINUED INTERACTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS 
EXPECTED TO HELP FORM A LOW WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 

EXPECT CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY SWELLS TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE 
FAR SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 117W-128W IN 06 HOURS...S 
OF 4N BETWEEN 100W-130W IN 24 HRS...THEN MERGED INTO SEAS RELATED
TO NEW LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. 

$$
AL