000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 3 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N93W TO 10N97W TO 12N103W
TO 13N112W TO 08N131W...THEN AS ITCZ AXIS TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 87W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 08N E OF 88W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT FROM 34N130W TO 30N140W WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART 
OF THE AREA TODAY...THEN REACH FROM 30N129W TO 26N133W TONIGHT 
THEN DISSIPATE TUE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 
KT...BUT THE FRONT WILL BRING NW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE 
NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. 

STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NO SCATTEROMETER DATA 
IS AVAILABLE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS TO INDICATE HOW STRONG THE GAP 
WINDS ARE...BUT A JASON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS WERE 8-9 FT
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...AND LATEST GLOBAL MODEL 
FORECASTS GUIDANCE INDICATE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AS A RESULT OF THIS INTERACTION AROUND MID-WEEK. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL BEGIN 
TO SPREAD INTO THE WATERS S OF 03N BETWEEN 114W-130W IN ABOUT 24 
TO 36 HOURS...THEN S OF 09N BETWEEN 100W-125W BY 48 HOURS. 

$$
MUNDELL