000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 3 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 12N94W TO 11N98W TO 13N102W 
TO 13N111W TO 07.5N134W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 07.5N134W TO BEYOND 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST NW OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR 
NW PART OF THE AREA MON...THEN REACH FROM 30N129W TO 26N133W MON 
NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TUE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...BUT THE FRONT WILL BRING NW SWELL WITH SEAS 
TO 9 FT IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. 

NEAR GALE WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE NEAR GALE WINDS HAVE PERTURBED THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...AND LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW 
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS A RESULT OF THIS 
INTERACTION AROUND MIDWEEK. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT 
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 2N 
BETWEEN 114W-130W IN 36 HOURS THEN S OF 06N BETWEEN 100W-130W IN 
48 HOURS. 

$$
AL