000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022201 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN OCT 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NW TO 12N92W TO 11N98W TO 13N104W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N117W TO 8N129W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO BEYOND 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W-102W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 102W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 4N78W TO 5N83W...AND ALSO FROM 6N84W TO 6N94W. ...DISCUSSION... ...N OF 18N... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS SEEN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE N OF 32N AND ALONG 135W SLIDES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRASTICALLY SHARPEN AS IT MOVES INLAND THE WESTERN U.S. MON THROUGH TUE. THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SHEAR OFF AND LAG BEHIND NEAR 19N139W BY LATE TUE...WHERE IT DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LOW THAT MOVES WESTWARD. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL PRESS EASTWARD IN ITS WAKE. AHEAD OF THE HIGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING 32N140W AS IT MOVES SE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NEAR 32N129W TO 28N140W. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS UPPER SUPPORT AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS FROM 32N126W TO 25N130W. WINDS NW OF THE FRONT WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT...BUT A NW SWELL WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO REACH 8 FT. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF HILARY...IS ANALYZED NEAR 23N125W MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOWED A SWIRL OF MOSTLY BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE CLOUDS. HIGH CENTERS OF 1022 MB AND 1023 MB ARE CENTERED NEAR 32N127W AND 27N140W RESPECTIVELY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH AT 32N127W TO NEAR 24N115W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 120W. ...S OF 18N... UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THIS AREA WITH ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONES NEAR 12N140W AND AT 16N109W. ABUNDANT DEEP LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AIDED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH PRIMARILY TO THE E OF 126W. A 1012 MB LOW IS ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N117W. AN AREA OF SW WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IS EVIDENT FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 103W-110W. LOW PRES OF 1010 MB IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA IN BROAD S-SW MONSOONAL FLOW AS NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT SPILL SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ACTING TO PERTURB THE TROUGH AND INTERJECT ADDITIONAL VORTICITY INTO IT. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 9 FT BY 48 HOURS. N TO NE WINDS TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 12N98W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE...THEN DECREASE SOME IN 48 HOURS. THE DOWNSTREAM NE-E 20 KT WINDS WILL IMPINGE INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A 1820 ASCAT PASS REVEALED SE-S 20 KT WINDS S OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 135W. EXPECT CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY SWELLS TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 2N BETWEEN 117W-127W IN 24 HOURS AND S OF 4N BETWEEN 105W-130W IN 48 HOURS. THE SWELLS WILL BUILD THE SEAS UP TO 8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD. $$ AGUIRRE