000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021607 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN OCT 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NW TO 13N92W TO 11N98W TO 13N105W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10N117W TO 8N133W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO BEYOND 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS 93W-97W AND BETWEEN 108W-116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60-90 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 125W-129W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 131W-134W. ...DISCUSSION... ...N OF 19N... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS SEEN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH N OF 32N ALONG 135W SLIDES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRASTICALLY SHARPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE U.S. W COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND INLAND THE WESTERN U..S LATE MON ONTO TUE. THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION SHOULD SHEAR OFF AND LAG BEHIND NEAR 19N139W BY LATE TUE...PERHAPS DEVELOPING INTO AN UPPER LOW THAT RETROGRADES WESTWARD. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL PRESS EASTWARD IN ITS WAKE. AHEAD OF THE HIGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING 33N140W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NEAR 30N133W TO 28N140W. WITH THE TROUGH THEN MOVING INLAND THE WESTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS UPPER SUPPORT AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS FROM 30N123W TO 26N130W. WINDS NW OF THE FRONT WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT...BUT A NW SWELL WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO REACH 8 FT. THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE A WEAK 1014 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF HILARY...IS ANALYZED NEAR 23N125W MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. VERY EARLY FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A SWIRL OF MOSTLY BROKEN TO SCATTERED LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. HIGH CENTER OF 1020 MB AND 1021 MB ARE ANALYZED NEAR 32N130W AND 28N138W RESPECTIVELY WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM 29N140W ESE TO NEAR 26N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 120W. ...S OF 19N... UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THIS AREA WITH ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONES NEAR 12N139W AND AT 16N109W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT DEEP LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO EXIST E OF 129W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N117W. AN AREA OF WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN A NW SWELL IS EVIDENT FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 103W-110W. SW-W WINDS OF 20 KT AREA FORECAST WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT AS POSSIBLE VORTICITY FROM SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS ENTRAINED INTO THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN IT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY....A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED WITHIN ABOUT 575 MILES SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO WITH A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH N TO NE WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 13N96W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THIS FLOW IS WHAT WILL HELP SET OF THE VORTICITY FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MERGE INTO THE LOW AT 10N117W AS THE NLY FLOW IMPINGES INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ITS S. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY SWELLS LEADING TO SEAS OF 8 FT TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 2N BETWEEN 119W-124W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021607 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN OCT 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NW TO 13N92W TO 11N98W TO 13N105W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10N117W TO 8N133W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO BEYOND 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS 93W-97W AND BETWEEN 108W-116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60-90 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 125W-129W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 131W-134W. ...DISCUSSION... ...N OF 19N... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS SEEN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH N OF 32N ALONG 135W SLIDES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRASTICALLY SHARPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE U.S. W COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND INLAND THE WESTERN U..S LATE MON ONTO TUE. THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION SHOULD SHEAR OFF AND LAG BEHIND NEAR 19N139W BY LATE TUE...PERHAPS DEVELOPING INTO AN UPPER LOW THAT RETROGRADES WESTWARD. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL PRESS EASTWARD IN ITS WAKE. AHEAD OF THE HIGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING 33N140W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NEAR 30N133W TO 28N140W. WITH THE TROUGH THEN MOVING INLAND THE WESTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS UPPER SUPPORT AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS FROM 30N123W TO 26N130W. WINDS NW OF THE FRONT WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT...BUT A NW SWELL WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO REACH 8 FT. THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE A WEAK 1014 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF HILARY...IS ANALYZED NEAR 23N125W MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. VERY EARLY FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A SWIRL OF MOSTLY BROKEN TO SCATTERED LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. HIGH CENTER OF 1020 MB AND 1021 MB ARE ANALYZED NEAR 32N130W AND 28N138W RESPECTIVELY WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM 29N140W ESE TO NEAR 26N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 120W. ...S OF 19N... UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THIS AREA WITH ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONES NEAR 12N139W AND AT 16N109W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT DEEP LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO EXIST E OF 129W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N117W. AN AREA OF WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN A NW SWELL IS EVIDENT FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 103W-110W. SW-W WINDS OF 20 KT AREA FORECAST WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT AS POSSIBLE VORTICITY FROM SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS ENTRAINED INTO THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN IT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY....A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED WITHIN ABOUT 575 MILES SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO WITH A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH N TO NE WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 13N96W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THIS FLOW IS WHAT WILL HELP SET OF THE VORTICITY FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MERGE INTO THE LOW AT 10N117W AS THE NLY FLOW IMPINGES INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ITS S. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY SWELLS LEADING TO SEAS OF 8 FT TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 2N BETWEEN 119W-124W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE