000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020955
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 2 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 14N94W TO 12N100W TO 
13N106W TO 09N125W THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 91W-116W. 

...DISCUSSION...

POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW HILARY NEAR 23N124W 1011 MB IS NEARLY 
STATIONARY AND WINDS...BASED ON 0548 UTC ASCAT PASS...ARE BELOW 
20 KT. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS ACTING
TO FUNNEL NEAL-GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS
MORNING. ASCAT PASS AT 0404 UTC SHOWED PEAK WINDS OF 30 KT NEAR 
15.7N 94.8W ABOUT 30 NM S OF THE COAST. NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL 
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 20-25 KT BY MON EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO AROUND 10 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD SW AS SHORT-PERIOD
SWELL TO AROUND 11N99W TONIGHT AND MON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES 
TO INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AS A RESULT OF THIS INTERACTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

FRESH SW WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 101W AND 115W. THESE CONVERGING WINDS ARE HELPING 
MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN THIS REGION.

$$
MUNDELL