000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 2 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS THROUGH PANAMA TO 10N86W TO 14N93W TO 
11.5N99W TO 12.5N102W TO 12N112W TO 09.5N118W TO 08N134W. ITCZ 
AXIS FROM 08N134W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS 
BETWEEN 101W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW HILARY NEAR 23N124W 1010 MB IS 
DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THE 
CENTER. LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 WINDS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE 
NW QUADRANT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 9 FT. THE 
REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH WINDS AND SEAS 
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT 
BY 24 HOURS.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO 24N137W. 
WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH 
A SET OF NW SWELL UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NW CORNER 
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 18 HOURS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT. 

WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH N TO 
NE WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY SUN NIGHT. 
THIS FLOW HAS HELPED PERTURB THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER FORMING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AS A RESULT OF 
THIS INTERACTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

SW 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH TO 06N BETWEEN 101W AND 115W. THESE WINDS AREA HELPING 
FOR CONVERGENCE TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION BETWEEN 101W AND 108W 
NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. WINDS AND SEAS 
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECREASE 
THROUGH 36 HOURS.

$$
AL