000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH PANAMA TO 09N82W TO
14N93W TO 12N97W TO 12.5N99W TO 08.5N134W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08.5N134W TO BEYOND 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 
NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW HILARY NEAR 24N123W 1010 MB IS 
DRIFTING WEST WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THE CENTER. A 
MORNING WINDSAT AND RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT 
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS 
ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 9 FT. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND 
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24 HOURS.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 24N136W. 
WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH 
A SET OF NW SWELL UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NW CORNER 
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND SEAS WILL 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W 
LATE SUN NIGHT WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA MON AND TUE... 
WITH A NEW SET OF NW SWELL BREACHING THE NW PORTION EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.

1021 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MEXICO N OF THE
AREA IS ALREADY AIDING THE FUNNELING OF WINDS THROUGH THE 
CHIVELAS PASS WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT IN 24 HOURS AS AN EARLY FALL COLD 
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE PRES 
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS TIGHT.

SW 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH TO 06N BETWEEN 101W AND 115W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE 
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

$$
LEWITSKY