000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011549
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1315 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO 11N87W TO
14N97W TO 08N134W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 08N134W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 118W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S 
OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 89W AS WELL AS FROM 07N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS S OF MEXICO TO 07N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW HILARY NEAR 24N123W 1009 MB IS 
DRIFTING WEST WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THE CENTER. AN 
OVERNIGHT WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS ESTIMATED 
TO BE UP TO 9 FT. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH 
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND SUBSIDING TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24 HOURS.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 28N130W 
AS CAPTURED BY A 0610 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. WINDS ARE 
LESS THAN 20 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH A SET OF 
NW SWELL UP TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NW CORNER N OF 26N 
AND W OF A LINE FROM 26N134W TO 30N128W BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 
FRONT WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH 
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 
FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W SUN NIGHT WEAKENING AS IT 
ENTERS OUR AREA MON AND TUE...WITH A NEW SET OF NW SWELL 
BREACHING THE NW PORTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1019 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MEXICO N OF THE
AREA IS ALREADY AIDING THE FUNNELING OF WINDS THROUGH THE 
CHIVELAS PASS WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT IN 24 HOURS AS AN EARLY FALL COLD 
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE PRES 
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS TIGHT.

SW 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH TO 06N BETWEEN 102W AND 113W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE 
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

$$
LEWITSKY