000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 1 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 16N86W TO 14N97W TO 10N113W TO 10N136W THEN 
ITCZ TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW HILARY NEAR 24N123W IS DRIFTING SLOWLY 
WEST WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 11 FT...PRIMARILY IN THE NW 
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
STEADILY DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION FROM
30N129W TO 25N135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO TODAY WILL INDUCE AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. STRONG WINDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT IN THE CHIVELAS PASS...
AND WILL INTENSIFY OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. PEAK N 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25-30 KT...BELOW GALE FORCE...BY SUN 
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA 
SUN NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE...BUT WILL BRING NW 
SWELL TO 9 FT INTO THE REGION N OF 26N W OF 130W BY MON AND TUE.

$$
MUNDELL