000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 1 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 14N93W TO 10N133W TO 11N126W TO 
09.5N136W THEN ITCZ FROM 09.5N136W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW HILARY NEAR 24N122W 1007 MB. WINDS 
HAVE DIMINISHED WITH STRONG TO 25 KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE N 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...AND SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. THE LOW WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS AND SEAS FURTHER DECREASING OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BY SUN NIGHT...FRESH WINDS WILL BE CONFINED 
WITHIN 30 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. 

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 26N140W. WINDS BEHIND THE 
FRONT ARE BELOW 20 KT AS NOTED IN AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS...BUT 
SEAS ARE TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AND IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SEAS 
ALSO DIMINISHING BELOW 8 FT. 

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THROUGH SAT WILL INDUCE AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT AND 
STRONG WINDS IN THE CHIVELAS PASS AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 
EARLY SAT. PEAK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25-30 
KT...BELOW GALE FORCE...BY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$
AL