000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270303
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 114.8W AT 0300 UTC AND 
IS MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 953 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 135 KT. HILARY APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AND IS FORECAST 
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MAKES A SHARP 
TURN TO THE N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 
NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. SWELLS GENERATED BY 
HILARY ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N...CAUSING HIGH SURF AND 
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN COSTA RICA COAST 
NEAR 10N85W TO 10N95W TO 12N103W WHERE IT TERMINATES...THEN 
RESUMES W OF HURRICANE HILARY FROM 14N117W TO A LOW 10N128W 1011 
MB TO 10N138W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N138W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 
10N128W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED AT 28N131W AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY E OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS ORIENTED NE TO SW FROM S CENTRAL ARIZONA TO 
25N118W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATES THE TWO FEATURES 
MENTIONED ABOVE. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM 
10N TO 22N W OF ABOUT 125W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. AT THE SURFACE A 1020 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR 27N136W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT 
ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

$$
CAB