000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162207 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU SEP 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE 16/1800 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO 10N92W 12N106W 09N116W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N130W...BEYOND 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EAST OF 103W... WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 97W...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 114W AND 121W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 129W AND 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W...AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 34N112W IN CENTRAL ARIZONA...TO 27N120W...TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N134W...TO 16N140W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO. THE SECOND TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N116W IN EAST CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO 33N124W...TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N134W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS CYCLONIC FROM 4N TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND 100W... AND FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W...AND THEN ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE 34N114W 16N140W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO HEADING INTO TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NEAR CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N151W TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REACHES 140W FROM 20N TO 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N106W 20N107W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN MEXICO AND 110W. TRADEWIND FLOW WILL REACH 20 KTS FROM 11N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 130W. TRADEWIND FLOW WILL REACH 20 KT TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 120W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 08 TO 09 FEET IN THOSE AREAS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST STARTING AT 18 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 25 KTS EVENTUALLY BY 42 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL START AS LESS THAN 08 FEET...EVENTUALLY REACHING 09 FEET BY 42 HOURS. $$ MT