000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU SEP 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ..TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE 16/1200 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF COASTAL PANAMA...BEYOND WESTERN COSTA RICA... TO 14N100W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N108W...TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N118W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N129W...TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 360 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EAST OF 104W...FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 140W... AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 34N114W IN WESTERN ARIZONA...TO 27N120W...TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N132W...TO 16N140W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO. THE SECOND TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N118W IN EAST CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO 33N124W...TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N134W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS CYCLONIC FROM 4N TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND 100W... AND FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W...AND THEN ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE 34N114W 16N140W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO HEADING INTO TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NEAR CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N151W TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REACHES 140W FROM 20N TO 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N105W 17N106W 19N106W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN THE MEXICO COAST AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W...AND FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 107W AND 108W. THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT CURRENTLY IS NEAR 11N108W IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FROM 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS. 20 KT WINDS ARE WITHIN 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 8 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY 20 KT WINDS ALSO ARE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT SOME 20 KT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET WILL BE AROUND THE LOW CENTER DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... MIXED WITH SOME TRADEWIND FLOW ALSO. THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT CURRENTLY IS NEAR 13N129W IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN 24 HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT SOME 20 KT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET WILL BE AROUND THE LOW CENTER DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...MIXED WITH SOME TRADEWIND FLOW ALSO. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST STARTING AT 18 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 25 KTS EVENTUALLY BY 48 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL START AS LESS THAN 8 FEET...EVENTUALLY REACHING 9 FEET BY 48 HOURS. $$ MT