000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 16N99W 12N100W 10N100W ON
THE 15/1200 UTC MAP ANALYSIS WAS ABSORBED INTO THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT 15/1800 UTC. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS PART OF A LARGER AREA OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO 
11N90W TO 14N99W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
14N101W...TO 10N107W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS 
NEAR 10N113W...TO 14N124W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 14N127W...TO 11N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 
100W AND 106W...AND FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 106W AND 108W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
PANAMA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 130W 
AND 140W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND 
WEAKENING BUT LINGERING MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 10N 
TO THE EAST OF 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE 
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N117W...TO 
32N120W TO 24N126W. A SEPARATE SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
IS NEAR 20N130W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM 3N101W 
TOWARD 14N124W...AND THEN THE FLOW CURVES NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 
26N110W ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND BEYOND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO 
TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N148W TO 
THE WEST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REACHES 
140W FROM 18N TO 25N.

NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20 KTS COVERS THE AREA NOW 
AND/OR IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS FROM 10N TO 17N
TO THE WEST OF 128W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET
IN A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.

SEA HEIGHTS ARE REACHING AND/OR ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W IN
A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY 
WINDS WILL BE AT OR NEAR 20 KT DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.

$$
MT