000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N99W 12N100W 10N100W.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
12N100W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 16N TO MEXICO BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO MEXICO
BETWEEN 98W AND 102W. IT EASILY POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE 
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED JUST TO THE WAVE. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS PART OF A LARGER AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER
TO 10N86W...13N97W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS 
NEAR 10N112W...TO 14N124W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 14N126W...TO 11N130W 10N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 7N 
BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N86W 8N97W 8N108W 9N118W...
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N117W 13N127W...AND WITHIN
90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N127W 9N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE 
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 35N118W...TO 
30N122W TO 26N126W. A SEPARATE SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
IS NEAR 21N130W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM 3N101W 
TOWARD 16N120W...AND THEN THE FLOW CURVES NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 
27N110W ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND BEYOND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO 
TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N147W TO 
THE WEST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REACHES 
140W FROM 15N TO 26N.

NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20 KTS COVERS THE AREA NOW 
AND/OR IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS FROM 10N TO 17N
TO THE WEST OF 128W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 9 FEET
IN A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.

SEA HEIGHTS ARE REACHING AND/OR ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W IN A MOSTLY 
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY 
WINDS WILL BE AT OR NEAR 20 KT DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.

$$
MT