000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 08N78W TO 11N88W TO 08N95W TO 11N105W TO LOW PRES 
AT 11N113W TO LOW PRES 15N123W TO 12N127W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 12N127W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 
03N E OF 80W...N OF 04N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...WITHIN 30 NM OF 
06N92W AND 09N104W...AND WITHIN 30 NM LINE 09N130W TO 10N140W.  

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1028 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 36N138W HAS RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH 20 KT TRADES FROM 
11N TO 17N W OF 130W AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO. THESE WINDS AREA FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
MAINTAINING 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS THE 
TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS FURTHER WESTWARD...THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 06 HOURS. WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH 
SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROPICAL 
WAVE WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS INTERACTION WILL INCREASE CONVECTION AND IN 
TURN WILL FRESHEN THE MONSOONAL FLOW FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W 
AND 113W BY LATE THU NIGHT. 

SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL RESULTING WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 
9 FT CONTINUE OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 09N W OF 110W. 

$$
FORMOSA