000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132125 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE SEP 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N94W TO 10N110W TO 09N115W TO 11N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 07N TO 10N...NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 14N98W...AND WITHIN 30 NM LINE 08N135W TO 08N140W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE 1028 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N141W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N115W. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TRADEWINDS FROM 10N-30N W OF 120W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S ALONG 19N120W 13N124W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANCHORED ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N109W. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NW AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. NE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 20-25 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UNTIL THE TROPICAL WAVE REACHES WEST OF THE CHIVELA PASS LATE WED. SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR S PART OF THE AREA GENERALLY S OF 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 115W. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND COVERAGE OF 8 FT SEAS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY THU. LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PRESENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ MRF