000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N102W IS EXPECTED TO 
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO NEAR 18N104W WED MORNING AND NEAR 
19N106W THU MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 
106W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N83W TO THE DEVELOPING 1004 MB 
SURFACE LOW AT 16N102W TO 20N113W...THEN INTO A SECOND 1009 MB 
LOW PRESSURE AT 17N126W THEN TO 11N133W TO 10N137W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N137W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 310 NM SW OF THE MEXICAN COAST 
BETWEEN 92W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 13N118W TO 08N130W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM VANCOUVER CANADA TO AN 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CUTTING OFF N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS 
CENTERED NEAR 25N157W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER WEST 
TEXAS HAS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH 18N133W...TO A CREST NEAR 09N151W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM NE TO SW 
AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 23N99W AND 20N110W. 
STRONG DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED 
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 22N...AND FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 122W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE 
W TO NEAR 13N114W RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
DOMINATING MOST OF TROPICS E OF 115W.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 
20N W OF 120W. A PERSISTENT 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED 
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 17N126W AND IS EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LONG-PERIOD CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS NOTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 
110W AND S OF 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W RESULTING IN SEAS TO 11 
FT. THESE SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE NE AND IMPACT THE 
FORECAST WATERS S OF 26N BY THIS EVENING...REACHING THE NORTHERN 
BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MIDDAY WED.

$$
HUFFMAN