000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300313
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES SW OF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 
16N102W 1004 MB IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WHILE REMAINING 
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS 
BUILDING TO 10-11 FT BY THU. THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N98W TO LOW PRES 16N102W TO 
19N115W TO LOW PRES 17N125W TO 10N134W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 
110W.

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N135W TO 26N126W. A 
1007 MB LOW PRES ANALYZED NEAR 17N125W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE WSW TO NEAR 16N128W WED. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS WEATHER OR 
SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. AN AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED 
NEAR 16N102W IS CHARACTERIZED BY FREQUENT BURSTS OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER. A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1640 
UTC SHOWED SW WINDS TO 20 KT WHILE A JASON ALTIMETRY PASS SHOWED 
5-7 FT SEAS NEAR 15N105W.

STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD NW OF THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT AND 
INDUCE FRESH NE TRADES IN NW PORTION OF AREA WITH SEAS GRADUALLY 
BUILDING TO 8 FT THROUGH THU. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT HAS MOVED INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA. 
THE SWELL WILL SPREAD NE ACROSS THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO 
REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WED.

$$
MUNDELL