000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
21UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 12N87W TO LOW PRES 19N122W TO 10N130W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 100W-105W AND WITHIN 240 NM OF THE COSTA RICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SW 
45-50 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA.
SW OF THE TROUGH IS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 17N126W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 115W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
FROM 12N117W TO 23N121W SEPARATES THE ABOVE MENTIONED 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 
25N120W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA S TO 16N97W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N140W TO 25N116W.
A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 19N122W IS FORECAST TO MOVE
E TO 19N124W BY MON MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW.

REINFORCING SW SWELL WILL REACH THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 
140W LATE TONIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 
90W BY MON NIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 
105W AND 85W ON WED.

$$
DGS