000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 10N80W 12N87W TO LOW PRES 19N121W TO 12N127W 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
270 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 104W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
COSTA RICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
45-50 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA.
SW OF THE TROUGH IS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 16N126W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM 13N116W TO 23N121W SEPARATES THE ABOVE MENTIONED 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 
30N124W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA S TO 16N97W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N140W TO 27N116W.
A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 19N121W IS FORECAST TO MOVE
E TO 19N124W BY MON MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW.

REINFORCING SW SWELL WILL REACH THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 
140W LATE TONIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 
90W BY MON NIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 
105W AND 85W ON WED.

$$
DGS