000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 16N100W TO 1001 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
18N111W TO 14N120W TO 15N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 08N94W AND NEAR 07N79W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N136W TO 
AROUND 23N126W. A LOW PRES TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER TROUGH...WHAT IS LEFT OF REMNANT LOW 
GREG...EXTENDS FROM 20N132W TO 16N134W. FRESH S TO SW WINDS S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH DOMINATE MOST OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL REGION 
BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0530 UTC DEFINE AN 
AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 118W.
ANOTHER AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IS NOTED PER A WINDSAT PASS S 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 03N. 

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC 
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DEEPEN SW OF MEXICO WITH TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DEVELOP NEAR 18N114W AND 15N102W. A DEEPENING MONSOON TROUGH WILL
ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. BY FRIDAY 
NIGHT A LARGE AREA OF WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT AND SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 8 FT WILL BE FOUND FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 88W AND 122W.

THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS JUST
W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXPECT WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY REACH 20 KT N 
OF 27N THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SEAS REMAINING AROUND 6-7 FT.

$$
GR/DM