000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 20N109W TO 14N121W TO 15N133W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N127W TO 10N120W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1022 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N136W TO 
AROUND 23N126W. THERE ARE NO DISTINCT AREAS OF LOW PRES EVIDENT 
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING...BUT A LOW PRES TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER TROUGH...WHAT IS
LEFT OF REMNANT LOW GREG...IS NEAR 19N132W. FRESH S TO SW WINDS 
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH DOMINATE MOST OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL 
REGION BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. SCATTEROMETER PASSES AT 0350 AND 
0530 UTC DEFINE AN AREA OF WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT ROUGHLY 
WITHIN 180 EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N116W TO 13N106W. ANOTHER
AREA OF 20 KT SCAT WINDS IS LOCATED NEAR 07N90W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC 
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DEEPEN SW OF MEXICO WITH TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DEVELOP NEAR 18N117W AND 14N103W. A DEEPENING MONSOON TROUGH WILL
ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. BY FRIDAY 
NIGHT A LARGE AREA OF WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT AND SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 8 FT WILL BE FOUND FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 88W AND 122W.

THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS JUST
W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXPECT WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY REACH 20 KT N 
OF 27N THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SEAS REMAINING AROUND 6-7 FT.

$$
MUNDELL