000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 12N86W TO 16N100W TO LOW PRES 1004 MB NEAR 
19N111W TO 11N117W TO 14N128W TO 10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 
108W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 20N TO 26N E OF 110W 
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ. SCATTERED 
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG N OF 05N BETWEEN 78W AND 
83W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. 1013 
MB REMNANT LOW OF GREG NEAR 19N131W IS BARELY DISCERNIBLE ON SAT 
IMAGERY...AND LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 
BELOW 20 KT NW OF THE CENTER IN THE WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. 
EXPECT THE LOW TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN 6-12 HOURS WITH 
ONLY A WEAK TROUGHING REMAINING. 

AN AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CENTERED 
NEAR 19N111W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH 
COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS DISTURBANCE IS UNLIKELY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED 
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N TO 15N OVER THE ENTIRE SWATH 
BETWEEN 105W AND 112W. MOST RECENT JASON PASS SHOWED SEAS 8-9 
FT. WWW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS 8-10 FT WILL 
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 9-11 FT FROM SUSTAINED SW WINDS ACROSS THE 
REGION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL REMAIN MODERATELY 
ACTIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE AND LOW PRES 
OVER NW MEXICO IS RESULTING IN NW WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT N OF 27N 
E TO 118W TO THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE 0416 ASCAT PASS 
AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THESE WIND SPEEDS. LITTLE 
CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS 
AS HIGH PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 33N135W DRIFTS TO THE SW. 

SE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE S WATERS MAINLY S OF 10N AND 
W OF 100W THROUGH THU BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT.

$$
GR