000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 12N86W TO 19N105W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 
19N110W TO 14N114W TO 14N120W TO 15N128W TO 10N140W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 20N E OF 108W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
87W AND 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 34N134W TO 
AROUND 24N124W. 1013 MB REMNANT LOW NEAR 19N130W IS BARELY 
DISCERNIBLE ON SAT IMAGERY...AND LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS 
HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT NW OF THE CENTER IN THE WEAKENING 
PRES GRADIENT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN 
6-12 HOURS WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALL THAT REMAINS OF TC GREG.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CENTERED 
NEAR 19N110W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK LOW HAS 
DISAPPEARED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHILE ACTIVE CONVECTION N OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA N OF 20N E OF 108W. ASCAT PASS AT 0410 UTC SHOWED 
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N TO 14N OVER THE ENTIRE SWATH BETWEEN 
105W AND 112W. DESCRIBED THESE WINDS IN THE HIGH SEAS FCST WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N112W TO 16N105W. MOST RECENT 
JASON PASS SHOWED SEAS 8-9 FT. WWW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
SEAS 8-10 FT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 9-11 FT FROM SUSTAINED SW
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MONSOON TROUGH 
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY ACTIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT INTENSE
LOWS OR TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BECAUSE OF 
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE BASIN.

$$
MUNDELL