000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240303
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 00O0 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N86W TO 
17N100W...THEN RESUMES OVER PACIFIC FROM 1008 MB LOW NEAR 
19N109W THROUGH 15N110W TO 11N120W TO 15N125W THEN RESUMES FROM 
14N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 108W 
AND 115W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH W OF 
135W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...NE TO E UPPER LEVEL WINDS DOMINATE THE EPAC E OF 120W
TO THE S OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N116W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM 
IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION FROM JUST WEST OF PUERTO 
VALLARTA MEXICO AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED 
MILES. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS JUST W OF AREA NEAR 20N143W. IN 
BETWEEN...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 34N128W TO A COL NEAR 18N130W.

HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 34N135W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION. REMNANT LOW OF GREG IS 
STILL NOTED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 19N129W. AN 1844 
UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THE REMNANT LOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF 
OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH. PRES GRADIENT NW OF THE LOW IS 
SUPPORTING 20 KT NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN 240 NM IN THE 
NW QUADRANT PER THE SAME ASCAT PASS. EXPECT THE LOW TO WEAKEN 
INTO A TROUGH AND DISSIPATE BY WED.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EVIDENT NEAR 
19N109W. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING SW WINDS S AND SE OF THE TROUGH 
AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT IN AN AREA FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 
100W AND 110W AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT ON WED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER COOLER 
WATERS. THE MONSOONAL FLOW IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE IS FORECAST 
TO PERSIST AND EXPAND TO MOST OF THE AREA FROM 08N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT BY THU.

PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER 
NW MEXICO IS RESULTING IN NW WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT N OF 27N E TO 
118W TO THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE 1700 ASCAT PASS 
CONFIRMED THESE WIND SPEEDS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 

SE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE S WATERS MAINLY S OF 10N AND 
W OF 100W THROUGH THU BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT.

$$
COBB