000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 12O0 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THEN OVER WATERS FROM 
18N103W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N110W TO 11N118W RESUMES FROM 
14N129W TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
12N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROF BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 136W...AND 
NEAR 11N104W. 

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 33N136W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION. REMNANT LOW OF GREG 
STILL HANGING ON NEAR 19N128W. PRES GRADIENT NW OF THE LOW IS 
SUPPORTING 20 KT NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW QUADRANT OUT TO 
ABOUT 90-100 NM. EXPECT THE LOW TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THEN DISSIPATE BY WED.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EVIDENT NEAR 
14N110W. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING SW WINDS S AND SE OF THE TROUGH 
AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT IN AN AREA FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 
105W AND 110W. IN ADDITION...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOW PRES OVER NW MEXICO IS RESULTING IN NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT 
N OF 24N E TO 118W TO THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. LITTLE 
CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE 
MONSOONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 KT AND 
EXPAND TO MOST OF THE AREA FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 
115W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT BY THU.

LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FT S 
OF 08N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W THROUGH WED MORNING.

$$
GR