000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230916 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

CORRECTED ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH OVER WATERS FROM 18N103W TO LOW PRES 14N111W 1009 
MB TO 11N118W RESUMES FROM 16N129W TO 10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 22NE OF 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM SE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 117W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 38N129W TO 29N147W IS ANCHORED BY 
1022 MB HIGH NEAR 34N136W. REMNANT LOW OF GREG STILL HANGING ON 
NEAR 19N128W. PRES GRADIENT NW OF THE LOW IS SUPPORTING 20 KT NE 
WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW QUADRANT OUT TO ABOUT 90-100 NM. 
EXPECT THE LOW TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 
HOURS THEN DISSIPATE BY WED.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EVIDENT NEAR 
14N111W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH 25N110W TO 14N111W. THE EMBEDDED LOW IN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING SW WINDS S AND SE OF THE TROUGH AND 
BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N108W TO 
15N104W. THE LOW PRES TROUGH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS ALSO 
ENHANCING NW WINDS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 26N.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TROUGH STAYING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WHILE LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS 
WILL ALLOW WINDS S AND SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO INCREASE TO 
AROUND 20-25 KT AND EXPAND TO MOST OF THE AREA FROM 07N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 115W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT BY THU.

LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FT S 
OF 08N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W THROUGH WED MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL