000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230402 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 17N105W TO 12N116W RESUMES FROM 16N128W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH E OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 128W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO DIG SLOWLY SSE INTO N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TODAY WITH UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 29N128W...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR 18N130W. THIS VORTEX IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NNE TONIGHT AND TUE...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO DROP INTO BACKSIDE OF LINGERING TROUGH...AFFECTING A WWD SHIFT OF THIS MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO ALONG 135W BY LATE WED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS S OF 25-30N BOTH TO THE E AND W OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...WITH ONE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED W OF THE TROUGH NEAR 20N144W...AND MORE COMPLEX BUT GENERALLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TO THE E BETWEEN 88W AND 115W...FORCED BY THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CENTERED ACROSS N TEXAS. E OF 90W...A TUTT LOW MOVING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED TO A SHARP INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA SSW ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS PATTERN IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN NE TO E WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC BETWEEN 88W AND 120W...PRODUCING A MODERATELY SHEARED UPPER ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION...BUT PERHAPS WITH TOO MUCH SHEAR TO ALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AT LOW LEVELS...A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...CENTERED ON A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 34N134W. THE REMNANT LOW OF GENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 19N127W MOVING WSW AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN FURTHER UNDER A ZONE OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WHILE OVER COOL WATERS. THE REMNANTS OF GENE REMAIN DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS REMNANT LOW AND THE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NW WAS SUPPORTING 20 KT WINDS OUT TO 240 NM ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT. EXPECT THIS LOW TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY TUE NIGHT. A SEGMENT OF THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 10N140W AND EXTENDS NE TO NEAR 16N128W...AND S OF THE REMNANTS OF GENE. GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE S OF THIS TROUGH WAS FORCING MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE E...THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMED ACROSS THE TROPICS NEAR 12N116W AND EXTENDED NE TO THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR 14N111W...WHICH HAS BEEN SHEARED BY ELY WINDS ALOFT. FARTHER TO THE E...REMNANTS OF T.S. HARVEY WHICH WERE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLIER TODAY HAVE BECOME INDISTINGUISHABLE WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OUT ACROSS THE EPAC AHEAD OF THE WWD MOVING REMNANTS OF HARVEY AND HAVE DEVELOPED INTO PERSISTENT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W. THE PERSISTENT NATURE TO THIS CONVECTION HAS LED TO INITIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 14N103W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND ENHANCE THE SW MONSOONAL FLOW. A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OR MONSOON DEPRESSION IS SUGGESTED TO DEVELOP OUT OF THIS BY GLOBAL MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 17N111W. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS OTHERWISE PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W...AND HAVE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF 90W. THIS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND WNW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE E END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH DRIFTS N ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FT S OF 8N BETWEEN 100W-120W THROUGH WED MORNING. $$ STRIPLING/LANDSEA