000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222200 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON AUG 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1215 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 16N103W TO 11N114W RESUMES FROM 14N128W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH E OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 128W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO DIG SLOWLY SSE INTO N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TODAY WITH UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 30N127.5W...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR 19N130W. THIS VORTEX IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NNE TONIGHT AND TUE...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO DROP INTO BACKSIDE OF LINGERING TROUGH...EFFECTING A WWD SHIFT OF THIS MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO ALONG 135W BY LATE WED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS S OF 25-30N BOTH TO THE E AND W OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...WITH ONE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED W OF THE TROUGH NEAR 20N143W...AND MORE COMPLEX BUT GENERALLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TO THE E BETWEEN 88W AND 115W...FORCED BY THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CENTERED ACROSS N TEXAS. E OF 90W...A TUTT LOW MOVING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED TO A SHARP INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA SSW ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS PATTERN IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN NE TO E WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC BETWEEN 88W AND 120W...PRODUCING A MILDLY SHEARED UPPER ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION. MODEST CYCLONIC TURNING CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS ELY FLOW ALOFT...ALONG ABOUT 115W FROM 08N TO 16N. THIS MODEST TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING LOW TO MID LEVEL MONSOONAL WESTERLIES TO ITS SE TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 100W AND 115W...WITH THIS REGION TO BECOME VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. AT LOW LEVELS...A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...CENTERED ON A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 33N136W. THE REMNANT LOW OF GENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N126.5W MOVING WSW AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN FURTHER UNDER A ZONE OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WHILE OVER COOL WATERS. THE REMNANTS OF GENE REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS REMNANT LOW AND THE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NW WAS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT WINDS OUT TO 150 NM ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT. EXPECT THIS LOW TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY TUE NIGHT. A SEGMENT OF THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 10N140W AND EXTENDS NE TO NEAR 15N124W...AND S OF THE REMNANTS OF GENE. GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE S OF THIS TROUGH WAS FORCING MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER TO THE E...THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMED ACROSS THE TROPICS NEAR 13N114W AND EXTENDED NE TO THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR 14N110W...WHICH HAS BEEN SHEARED BY ELY WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODEST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG 115W MENTIONED ABOVE. ACTIVE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING BOTH S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HERE...AND ACROSS THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW. FURTHER TO THE E...REMNANTS OF T.S. HARVEY WERE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N101W....WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE REMNANTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO SHIFT GRADUALLY WWD ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN OVER WATER AND PASS S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH WED. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OUT ACROSS THE EPAC AHEAD OF THE WWD MOVING REMNANTS OF HARVEY AND HAVE EXPLODED INTO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 97W AND 106W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY WILL MOVE WWD OVER WATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY TROUGHING ALONG 113W...AND ENHANCE THE MONSOONAL FLOW AS MENTIONED ABOVE. A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OR GYRE IS SUGGESTED TO DEVELOP OUT OF THIS BY GLOBAL MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 17N111W. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS OTHERWISE PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W...AND HAVE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF 90W. THIS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND WNW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE E END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH DRIFTS N ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FT S OF 8N BETWEEN 100W-120W THROUGH WED MORNING. $$ STRIPLING