000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221727 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON AUG 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 16N100W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N109W TO 09N116W RESUMES FROM 15N126W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SW OF LINE 18N102W TO 11N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM SE OF MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N TO 15N...AND S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 133W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO DIG SLOWLY SSE INTO N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MEAN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 31N127W...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR 21N130W. THIS VORTEX IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NNE TONIGHT AND TUE...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO DROP INTO BACKSIDE OF LINGERING TROUGH...EFFECTING A WWD SHIFT OF THIS MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO ALONG 135W BY LATE WED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS S OF 25-30N BOTH TO THE E AND W OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...WITH ONE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED W OF THE TROUGH NEAR 19N142W...AND MORE COMPLEX BUT GENERALLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TO THE E BETWEEN 88W AND 115W...FORCED BY THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ACROSS NW TEXAS. E OF 90W...A TUTT LOW MOVING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED TO A SHARP INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL CUBA SSW ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS PATTERN IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN NE TO E WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC BETWEEN 85W AND 125W...PRODUCING A MILDLY SHEARED UPPER ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION. MODEST CYCLONIC TURNING CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS ELY FLOW ALOFT...ALONG ABOUT 113W FROM 06N TO 14N. THIS MODEST TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING LOW TO MID LEVEL MONSOONAL WESTERLIES TO ITS SE TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 100W AND 115W...AND BECOME VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. AT LOW LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...CENTERED ON A PAIR OF HIGH PRES CENTERS OF 1021 AND 1022 MB RESPECTIVELY...WITH CENTER POINT BETWEEN THEM NEAR 32N140W. THE REMNANT LOW OF GENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20N125.5W MOVING WWD AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN FURTHER OVER COOL WATERS. THE REMNANTS OF GENE WERE DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS REMNANT LOW AND THE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NW WAS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT WINDS OUT TO 210 NM ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT...BASED ON OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. EXPECT THIS LOW TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY TUE NIGHT. A SEGMENT OF THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 10N140W AND EXTENDS NE TO NEAR 15N125W...AND S OF THE REMNANTS OF GENE. GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE S OF THIS TROUGH WAS FORCING MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER TO THE E...THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMED ACROSS THE TROPICS NEAR 09N118W AND EXTENDED NE TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13.5N109W... WHICH WAS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE MODEST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG 113W MENTIONED ABOVE. ACTIVE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING BOTH S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HERE...AND ACROSS THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE SURFACE LOW. FURTHER TO THE E...REMNANTS OF T.S. HARVEY WERE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N96.5W....WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE REMNANTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO SHIFT GRADUALLY WWD ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN OVER WATER AND PASS S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH WED. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OUT ACROSS THE EPAC AHEAD OF THE WWD MOVING REMNANTS OF HARVEY AND HAVE EXPLODED INTO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY WILL MOVE WWD OVER WATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY TROUGHING ALONG 113W...AND ENHANCE THE MONSOONAL FLOW AS MENTIONED ABOVE. A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SUGGESTED TO DEVELOP OUT OF THIS BY GLOBAL MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 17N115W. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS OTHERWISE PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W...AND HAVE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF 85W. THIS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND WNW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE E END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH DRIFTS N ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FT S OF 8N BETWEEN 100W-120W THROUGH WED MORNING. $$ STRIPLING