000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 16N101W TO 12N109W TO 
11N117W THEN RESUMES FROM 16N125W TO 12N131W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 
102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N125.5W. 

...DISCUSSION...
REMNANT LOW OF GENE LOCATED NEAR 20N125W IS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP 
CONVECTION. PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 1022 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N137W IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT WINDS
OUT TO 240 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. EXPECT THIS LOW TO 
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN INTO A 
TROUGH BY TUE NIGHT.

A LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 103W 
TO A WEAK LOW NEAR 13N108W IS TRIGGERING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
W OF THE LOW. THIS AREA IS BENEATH MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT 
WHICH IS ACTING TO SHEAR ANY CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE WEAK LOW. 
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TROUGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOW PRES GRADUALLY DEEPENING 
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. EXPECT LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR 16N106W BY 
TUE NIGHT OR WED. AS THIS LOW PRES TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THROUGH 
WED...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF T.S. HARVEY NOW 
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N97W. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION REMAINS
GOOD OVER LAND...AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY INDUCE A SYMPATHETIC LOW ONCE IT MOVES OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...AND ENHANCE THE LOW PRES EMBEDDED 
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE GFS APPEARS TO FAVOR THIS SOLUTION.

LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FT S 
OF 8N BETWEEN 100W-120W THROUGH WED MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL