000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191001 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE GREG NEAR 19.1N 115.1W AT 19/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 12 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 GUSTS TO 80 KT. MINIMUM PRES 987 
MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF CENTER. GREG 
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPS. REFER TO FORECAST ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER 
WTPZ22 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 12N105W THEN RESUMES FROM 17N117W 
TO 12N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 118W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM HIGH PRES NEAR 40N140W TO NEAR
25N127W. TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA CONTINUES TO MOVE W OF THE AREA.
WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE FAIRLY 
BENIGN EXCEPT FOR A SWATH OF HIGHER WINDS EXTENDING SW FROM HURCN
GREG TO AROUND 10N120W DEPICTED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS. 
EXPECT THIS TAIL OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD 
ALONG WITH GREG OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
GREG HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER AS IT REACHES COOLER OCEAN TEMPS. 
AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGH SEAS UNTIL A STRONGER 
WEAKENING TREND TAKES PLACE.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK INDICATES A AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR 
12N105W OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHICH DRIFTS NNW WITHOUT MUCH 
INTENSIFICATION. BY SUN NIGHT OR MON EXPECT BASIN TO BE 
RELATIVELY QUIET ONCE AGAIN. VERY LITTLE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL 
IN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. 

$$
MUNDELL