000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA AT 11.6N 136.9W 1001 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 
17 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 6 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS 
55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLE. FERNANDA EXPECTED TO MOVE W AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AND MOVE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
THU NIGHT. REFER TO FORECAST ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER 
WTPZ21 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM GREG AT 15.8N 102.2W 1004 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 17 
MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 14 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 
101W AND 104W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY 
OVER WARM WATERS S OF MEXICO AND BECOME A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS. 
REFER TO FORECAST ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC 
AND AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO TROPICAL GREG TO 11N120W TO 
13N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 124W-128W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...N OF 26N W OF 133W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 
130W. LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
OVER THE SE U.S. WITH RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
15N125W. WEAK ILL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N129W WILL 
DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED OVER TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 11N137W. THE 
ANTICYLONE IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD OUTFLOW FOR FERNANDA.

SURFACE HIGH RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N137W SE TO 22N112W. WINDS 
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER MOST OF BASIN EXCEPT THOSE AREAS 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES OR LOW PRES CENTERS. THE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY SWELL HAS SUBSIDED. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 120W.

$$
DGS