000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170254
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA AT 11.7N 135.7W 1001 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 
17 MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 9 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS 
55 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN 60 NM E AND 45 NM W 
SEMICIRCLES.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N AND 45 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 17 FT.  WITHIN 240 NM N AND 120 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES  WINDS TO 33 KT.  SEAS TO 12 FT.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE.  FERNANDA EXPECTED TO MOVE W AND INTENSIFY DURING 
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT FALL SHORT OF BECOMING HURRICANE.  REFER TO 
FORECAST ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ21 KNHC AND 
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E AT 13.8N 99.6W 1006 MB AT 0300 UTC 
AUG 17 MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
30 GUSTS 40 KT.  WITHIN 210 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES  
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 12N FROM 100W TO 104W.   
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER WARM 
WATERS S OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT NEXT 48 HOURS.  REFER TO FORECAST 
ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER 
MIATCMEP2 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN TO 
15N104W TO 11N118W TO 13N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 95W AND FROM 112W TO 
122W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AT 32N108W MAINTAINS STEADY 
MOIST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS BASIN E OF 125W.  WEAK ILL- 
DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 20N130W BRINGS DRY AIR MASS W OF 130W 
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTEND FROM 32N135W TO 
20N140W...EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FERNANDA.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...
HIGH PRES 1025 MB AT 33N148W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 19N108W. 
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER MOST OF BASIN EXCEPT THOSE 
AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES OR LOW PRES CENTERS. 
SIMILARLY SEAS REMAIN UNDER 8 FT EXCEPT S OF 14N E OF 120W WHERE 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SE TO S 8 FT SWELLS SPREAD.

$$
WALLY BARNES