000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 11.7N 135.7W 1001 MB AT 2100 UTC 
AUG 16 MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 
KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM E AND 45 
NM W SEMICIRCLES. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N AND 45 NM 
S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. WITHIN 240 NM N AND 120 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND INTENSIFY 
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. REFER TO FORECAST ADVISORIES 
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ21 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E NEAR 13.8N 99.6W 1006 MB AT 2100 UTC 
AUG 16 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 210 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 12N TO MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 
99W AND 103W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW
AND INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM WATERS S OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS. REFER TO FORECAST ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPZ22 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN TO 
15N104W TO 11N118W TO 13N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 95W AND FROM 112W TO 
122W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N140W 
TO NEAR 17N110W. WINDS ARE 10-15 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION N 
OF 20N WITH SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. AN ACTIVE MONSOON STRETCHES ALL 
ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS...WITH MULTIPLE TROPICAL CYCLONES...AND 
AREAS OF LOW PRES NEAR 12N111W AND 09N88W. MODERATE EASTERLY 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FOUND OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 120W.

WW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH TONIGHT E OF 115W. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO GRADUALLY 
SHIFT POLEWARD THROUGH WED...ALLOWING SEAS TO CONTINUE BUILDING 
TO 11-12 FT WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 
20-25 KT AS THE MONSOON TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE REGION E OF 115W.

$$
MUNDELL