000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX E NEAR 12.4N133.5W 1006 MB AT 0900 UTC 
AUG 16 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO 12 FT. NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 160 NM OVER W SEMICIRCLE OF 
CENTER. SIX E IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND INTENSIFY INTO A 
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REFER TO FORECAST 
ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ21 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER 
MIATCMEP1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
14N98W. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 90 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM NW E 180 NM W SEMICIRCLES 
OF CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS 
AND MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 11N86W TO LOW PRES 14N98W TO LOW PRES 12N111W TO 
SIX E AT 12N134W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
200 NM S OF AXIS FROM 86W TO 89W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...N OF 28N W OF 131W. A 45-55 KT UPPER LEVEL WLY 
WIND MAX IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
16N136W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR 
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 129W. THE UPPER 
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SOME ON WED. A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR THE NORTHERN MEXICO/NEW MEXICO BORDER NEAR 
31N107W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 25N131W. THE 
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR  
16N125W...WITH TROUGH NE TO 24N117W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE E. 

VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 
5N TO 17N W OF 110W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION REGION FROM 32N140W 
SE TO NEAR 15N105W. CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL RESULTING IN 
SEAS TO 9 FT S OF 15N E OF 115W. A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED 
NEAR 12N111W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TO DRIFT W.

$$
DGS