000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
1007 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 12N131W HAS SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM W OF ITS CENTER. THE 
LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS... 
AND MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 10N85W TO LOW PRES 10N92W TO LOW PRES 12N130W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH FROM 
137W TO 140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF 
MEXICAN COAST FROM 89W TO 103W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW TO NEAR 30N140W HAS DISRUPTED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
AS A RESULT...WINDS ARE AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS 4-5 FT N OF 20N 
AND W OF 125W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST N OF 30N TONIGHT AND 
DISSIPATE TUE WHILE WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS WNW OF THE AREA NEAR 
32N152W. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AND 
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FT BY WED. LOW PRES THERMAL TROUGH IN 
NW MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NW WINDS IN 
THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 22N E OF 118W.

THE DEEP TROPICS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH 
WITH MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 
12N94W...12N106W AND THE SPECIAL FEATURE NEAR 12N131W. THE LOW 
NEAR 12N106W LACKS DEEP CONVECTION AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
VERY MUCH THROUGH WED. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE 
TO STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW S OF THE LOW NEAR 12N94W AND WEAK 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS 
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE NW S OF MEXICO.
EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE E OF 120W 
ALONG 10-15N THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT S 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM SW WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS THE REGION.

$$
MUNDELL