000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED AT 12N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OVER W SEMICIRCLE OF 
CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK W AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 10N85W TO LOW PRES 10N92W TO LOW PRES 12N130W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
07N-11N BETWEEN 107W-111W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
137W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 23N143W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 28N127W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 15N-25N W OF 120W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES NW OF THE AREA.
A COL SEPARATES THE RIDGE FROM A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR THE NORTHERN MEXICO/SW TEXAS BORDER NEAR 30N105W WITH AN 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 25N125W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST 
TO MEANDER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A 45-50 KT UPPER LEVEL ELY WIND 
MAX IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 24N108W TO 22N118W.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND INVERTED TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 22N129W 
TO 14N128W. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS.

VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 
5N TO 17N W OF 110W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION REGION FROM 32N140W 
SE TO NEAR 15N105W. CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL RESULTING IN 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT S OF 15N E OF 115W. A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS 
CENTERED NEAR 15N92W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW TO NEAR 
13N95W TUE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE NE QUADRANT.
 
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 13N108W TONIGHT.   

$$
DGS