000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142114
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED AT 12N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE W QUADRANT.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK W AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 10N85W TO LOW PRES 12N128W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 300 NM OF 
LINE 04.5N78W TO 13N108W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 13N108W TO 
07N117W TO 09N135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED THROUGH 32N120W 
TO 20N132W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 27N W OF 128W. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
ALOFT IS LOCATED N OF 20N E OF 118W INTO MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. BY 48 HOURS A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED N 
OF 26N W OF 128W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 137W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF ABOUT 20N W OF 
120W. MOVING SOUTH AND INTO THE TROPICS A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 19N127W AND IS MOVING W 
ABOUT 15 KT. AT THE SURFACE A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
34N130W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER SE TO 
20N110W. A LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF 12N107W 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OVER THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 105W AT THE UPPER LEVELS FLOW IS 
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KT. AT THE SURFACE FROM 
05N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W SW WINDS ARE 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 
10 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 15N E OF 103W AND ALSO S OF 
10N BETWEEN 103W AND 123W WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS 8 
TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. A LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE 
VICINITY OF 11N94W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
CAB