000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED AT 12N126.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE W QUADRANT.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK W AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NW COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74.5W TO 10N92W 
TO 10N112W TO LOW PRES 12N126.5W TO 09.5N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 80W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 270 NM N AND 360 NM S 
OF AXIS W OF 87W FROM 106W TO 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED THROUGH 32N123W 
TO 20N130W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 27N W OF 128W. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
ALOFT IS LOCATED N OF 20N E OF 115W INTO MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE N OF ABOUT 20N W OF 120W. MOVING SOUTH AND INTO THE 
TROPICS A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 18N126W AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. AT THE SURFACE A 1025 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 
HIGH CENTER SE TO 20N115W. A LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE 
VICINITY OF 12N108W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OVER THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 105W AT THE UPPER LEVELS FLOW IS 
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KT. AT THE SURFACE SE OF 
LINE 14.5N92W TO 14.5N95W TO 09N110W TO 08N116W AND E TO 90W 
WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL. S OF 
07.5N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS 8 
TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL.

$$
CAB