000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140914
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED AT 12N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OVER W SEMICIRCLE OF 
CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK W AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 11N86W 12N95W 10N110W TO LOW PRES 12N126W 
10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM N 
OF AXIS FROM 87W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 106W-109W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 22N142W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 30N125W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 15N-25N W OF 120W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES NW OF THE AREA.
A NARROW TROUGH FROM 32N121W TO 17N135W SEPARATES THE RIDGE FROM 
A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE NORTHERN MEXICO/SW 
TEXAS BORDER NEAR 29N105W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 
22N125W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. A 45-50 KT UPPER LEVEL NE WIND MAX IS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF 
THE TROUGH S OF 25N.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND INVERTED TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 18N123W 
TO 11N123W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW W OF THE TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 
5N W OF 105W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION REGION FROM 32N140W 
SE TO NEAR 15N109W. CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL RESULTING IN 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT S OF 15N E OF 115W. 

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 11N106W MON.   

$$
DGS